Florida, New York And Ohio Could Be Next After Texas


Topline

As the Texas legislature prepares to pass a new congressional map eliminating Democratic House seats and California Gov. Gavin Newsom begins a campaign to reshape the Golden State’s congressional districts, legislators in a slew of other states are suggesting plans to reshape the country’s congressional districts before the 2026 midterm elections.

Key Facts

Republicans have shown interest in redrawing maps in at least three states where they control the legislature and the governorship: Florida, Ohio and Missouri.

Democrats only control both the legislature and governorship in a handful of states that don’t rely on independent commissions to draw congressional districts, meaning options to respond to Republican challenges are limited unless the commissions are scrapped.

Some Democratic leaders, including New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, are exploring options to end independent redistricting commissions in their states, with the New York governor telling reporters at a press conference early this month “if Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage, then they’re leaving us no choice, we must do the same.”

Several states under Democratic control send delegations to Congress with only Democratic representatives—such as Connecticut, New Mexico and Massachusetts—meaning there is no room to pick up additional seats there.

News Peg

Democratic members of the Texas House of Representatives returned to the state Monday after leaving the state to deny Republicans the quorum needed to pass new congressional maps during a special session. A Texas Senate panel has already approved another redistricting plan to bring before the legislature, the Texas Tribune reported, redrawing Texas’s congressional districts to potentially give Republicans up to five more seats. However, House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu Rep. Gene Wu claimed victory for bringing national attention to the redistricting fight. “We killed the corrupt special session, withstood unprecedented surveillance and intimidation and rallied Democrats nationwide to join this existential fight for fair representation — reshaping the entire 2026 landscape,” Wu said in a press release. Democrats are pinning their hopes on California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom announced efforts last week to temporarily circumvent the state’s redistricting commission and adopt new maps to eliminate GOP-dominated districts, pending voter approval in November.

What Do Efforts In Ohio Look Like?

Ohio was already in the middle of a redistricting fight after Democrats rejected new maps drawn following the 2020 census. The state’s General Assembly must agree to a new map by Sept. 30 with 60% support, including support from half of Democrats, or new maps will be drawn by the seven-member Ohio Redistricting Commission, according to the state government’s timeline. The Republican-controlled commission consists of Ohio’s Republican governor, secretary of state, auditor, as well as two seats appointed by the Senate president and speaker of the House (both Republicans) and two seats appointed by the Senate and House minority leaders (both Democrats). If the commission can’t agree on a map by Oct. 31, the power returns to the Republican-dominated General Assembly—which this time around only needs a simple majority to pass a map. A Republican operative told Politico on Monday that the state GOP could use this pressure to force state Democrats to accept a map that would endanger two Democratic seats, potentially avoiding a scenario where Democrats could lose as many as three.

Could Republicans Pick Up A Seat In Missouri?

Republicans in the Show-Me State are looking to convene a special legislative session to draw up new congressional maps in September, Missouri Public Radio reported last week. The GOP is most likely looking to pick up one additional seat in Missouri, which sends six Republicans and two Democrats to Congress, by dividing the Kansas City district held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Despite holding a majority in the Missouri House, Republicans previously defeated a measure that would have divided Cleaver’s district in 2022, and critics of the plan worry that dividing the seat could instead create two competitive districts for Democrats in the Kansas City area—meaning Democrats could potentially pick up an extra seat in Missouri instead.

Will Florida Move Forward With Redistricting?

Republicans have announced plans to look at redistricting in the Sunshine State, but it’s unclear if their efforts will bear any fruit before the midterm elections. Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez announced the creation of a “Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting,” while noting “We do not have the capacity to engage in the full redistricting process,” according to a memo the Tampa Bay Times viewed, as the state already finished redistricting in 2022. It is largely unclear at this point what authority Republicans in the state might have for redrawing maps, however. Florida also banned partisan gerrymandering after voters approved an amendment to the state constitution in 2010. However, DeSantis said issues with the 2020 census justify a second look at the congressional districts. “We believe there’s defects in the current map,” DeSantis told reporters on Aug. 11. “We believe the districts are malapportioned because of the explosive growth that we’ve seen in the state of Florida. So I think even if they don’t do a new census, even if they don’t revise the current census, I still think it’s appropriate to be doing it.” Republicans currently hold 20 of the Sunshine State’s 28 congressional districts, and are potentially aiming to target South Florida districts held by Democrats including Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Rep. Jared Moskowitz.

Are There Any Other States Democrats Could Gerrymander?

Outside of California, Democrats have fewer options to pursue redistricting. Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore told local station WBAL “all options are on the table about how we respond,” but Republicans only control a single seat in the state—the eastern 1st District held by far-right House Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Andy Harris. Likewise, Democratic Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who welcomed the Texas Democrats breaking quorum, also said he would look at his state’s map—but Illinois’ maps already heavily favor Democrats, sending only three GOP representatives to Congress. Hochul said she would also consider options to redraw New York’s districts early. However, it’s unclear if there is a path forward for Democrats to gain more seats in the Empire State. Democrats in the state Senate have proposed a constitutional amendment to permit mid-decade redistricting, but this would require a referendum that could only be held in 2027 at the earliest, City and State reported. New maps in New York would likely target swing districts held by Republicans, such as the 17th District in the Hudson Valley held by Rep. Mike Lawler. Democrats also control the legislature and governorship in Oregon, but recently redrew congressional districts before the 2022 midterms. It’s unclear if Democrats could pick up any more seats in Oregon, and the previous redistricting effort ended up giving Republicans an extra seat in one of the new districts when former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer won a close election during that year’s midterms. Chavez-DeRemer lost her seat to Democratic challenger Janelle Bynum in 2024, but has since been confirmed as Secretary of Labor in the Trump administration.



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